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Looking ahead to NFL's Week 8
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NFL Football - Analysis
Written by Frederick Schwager   
Tuesday, 27 October 2009 13:47
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cutler

Week Eight of the NFL season is on the horizon, and we will be reaching the halfway point for some teams. First, we’ll start off with a quick look back at the game in Miami, the one I predicted would be a Miami upset.

Then, we'll look at the Vikings vs. Lambeau, the NFC East showdown between the Giants and Eagles, the Jay Cutler watch and at how brutal the AFC North is going to be.

The fact that Miami lost at home against New Orleans rests solely on the shoulders of the coaching staff: Tony Sparano’s decision to make the halftime timeout aside (as that is a mistake that might happen once in a while), Miami still had a 24-10 lead, and they were to start the second half with the ball.

sparanoSo, Miami, a running team that ran the ball well in the first half, decides this is the time to dial up the pass.  On their first two drives, they called five pass plays and one running play. The result was an interception that was returned for a touchdown and a three-and-out. Their next two possessions, they dial up five running plays and one pass, resulting in another three-and-out and a field goal (as they got the ball back off of a turnover, in field goal range).

Miami needed to mix it up more than that. It’s hard to expect to beat the Saints when you run 16 plays (punts and field goal included) over four drives. Miami’s next three drives featured eight called pass plays, and one running play. Those drives yielded seven points, and two more three-and-outs. Miami is now down 37-34, and the Saints have the ball with eight minutes to play.

There’s no excuse that the game could ever reach that point. Miami had the ball seven times, called 14 pass plays and seven running plays. Both of Chad Henne’s interceptions came in the second half, and both were returned for touchdowns. That’s not what they do, and there’s no reason anything should have been changed after a very solid first half. They needed to eat up clock and limit Drew Brees’ chances, and they did nothing of the sort.

 

Looking ahead:

Jay Cutler watch: This is something I will monitor frequently this year, as the assumption was prior to the season that the Broncos really made an awful trade. Well, Jay Cutler is on pace to throw for well over 20 interceptions, as he’s thrown just one more touchdown pass than he has picks (11/10 over seven games). Maybe something else is wrong with the Bears. Maybe Cutler never really warranted the “elite” status that many analysts still regard him with. The Bears gave up quite a bit to get him, and with a new contract extension, they had better hope that Cutler begins to earn the status he’s been given.

 

Minnesota @ Lambeau: That’s right. The Green Bay Packers are going to call upon the Lambeau advantage now more than ever. Brett Favre is making his first return there since he decided to try on different uniforms. Aaron Rodgers has been great this season, standing behind an offensive line that has definitely struggled this season. The Vikings are coming off a tough, physical loss at the hands of the Steelers, and now they go into Green Bay, which is as difficult a place to play in as any other in the NFL.

Let’s not forget what else is at hand here. The Packers, at 4-2, could narrow the gap to half-a-game behind the Vikings, and perhaps just as important, even up the series. Rodgers and a third-ranked Green Bay defense (that should be much more effective than the first go-around) will have a hostile crowd backing them in this one. We should see homefield advantage in full effect, and I would be stunned if Minnesota comes out of this with a “W”.

 

New York (Giants) @ Philadelphia: Sunday night football does not get much better than this, with a battle between two NFC East teams that have only lost two games apiece over the first seven weeks. The Giants (5-2) are coming off a tough loss to Arizona at home, following a blowout delivered by New Orleans. Philadelphia (4-2), on the other hand, bounced back and took care of the Redskins, after dropping a game to the Oakland Raiders.

New York needs to get back to playing complete football. Their defense let them down in a big way in New Orleans, and it was the passing game that did them in against Arizona. Simply put, the fact that they turned the ball over four times and still limited Arizona to 24 points is a testament to their defense having done its part. Eli Manning, his receiving core and Ahmad Bradshaw (with a costly fourth-quarter fumble) threw that game away. They can expect similar results if they play that way against Philadelphia. The one bright spot is in the fact that former Giants’ nemesis, Brian Dawkins, no longer plays for the Eagles.

The Eagles will probably be without RB Brian Westbrook on Sunday, and that is a big concern for this offense, who lost to Oakland on the basis of a pass-heavy attack. The Eagles are a team that has underachieved as well, considering preseason expectations, but anything and everything that has happened earlier in the season goes out the window in a game like this. Regular season games do not get much more important than this, and I expect the Eagles to bring things that we haven’t seen yet this season. Perhaps we will get our first real dose of Michael Vick. All that is certain is that this should be a great game.

 

The AFC North is going to be brutal: Just when everybody thought that Cincinnati had come down to earth, they go and drop 45 points on the Chicago Bears, heading into the bye week on a very high note.

Over in Pittsburgh, however, the Steelers head into a bye week coming off a 27-17 victory over the previously undefeated Minnesota Vikings, and at no better time, as the injuries on defense continue to pile up.

Both teams are 5-2 and are looking playoff-ready, and the question of just who will come away with this division becomes more and more interesting with each passing week. The Steelers come back to play Denver in Denver. The Bengals come back to a home game against Baltimore, and while these will be tough games, I expect both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to hold an advantage coming off the bye.

Then we have the Week Ten matchup, with the Bengals going to Pittsburgh. Who would have thought, prior to the season, that this would be one of the biggest games of the year? The game is in Pittsburgh, but the real question is, just how healthy the Steelers will be when they take the field in that one?

A lot will be at stake in that one, especially considering the Bengals took round one. Both of these teams face relatively similar schedules in terms of difficulty throughout the rest of the year, so this one game comes with real postseason repercussions.


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