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Are the '09 Saints Better than the '07 Patriots?
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NFL Football - Analysis
Written by Derek Lofland   
Tuesday, 10 November 2009 14:48
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brady moss

One of the trendy topics right now is whether the 2009 New Orleans Saints are a better offensive unit than the record-setting 2007 New England Patriots.

The Saints are undefeated and putting up numbers at a historic pace, so the discussion was bound to come up. I am here to tell you that the New England Patriots were a vastly superior offense, and it really is not even that close.

This is the world we are in today. Someone or some team starts putting up big numbers and it is the best ever. I'm going to remind people how much better the 2007 New England team was on offense by looking at a few statistics and other factors.

 

1) Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees - It is not even close. New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees is on pace to complete 362 passes in 530 attempts for 4,672 yards, 34 touchdowns, 14 picks, and a QB rating of 106.1. New England Patriots QB Tom Brady completed 398 passes in 578 attempts for 4,860 yards, 50 touchdown passes, seven interceptions and a QB rating of 117.2.

Brady was superior in every facet of the game. Slightly better completion percentage, more completions, more attempts, more passing yards, way more passing touchdowns and a much better QB rating.

Brees has 17 touchdowns and seven picks through his first eight games. Brady had 30 touchdown passes and two picks in his first eight games. Brady also had at least three touchdown passes in every game over the first eight games of his schedule. Brees has already been held out of the end zone twice and has had only one touchdown pass in two other games.

Brady's 2007 season is light years ahead of Brees, both in terms of the first eight games and where Brees is projected to end up. The statistics show that it is not even close.

 

brees2) Randy Moss vs. Marques Colston - Teams worry about Saints WR Marques Colston this year. Teams were terrified of Patriots WR Randy Moss in 2007.

Colston leads this team with 37 receptions for 596 yards and six touchdowns. WR Wes Welker, who was the second best receiver on that Patriots’ team, had 56 receptions for 613 yards and six touchdown receptions in his first eight games alone. Moss was the Patriots’ leading receiver that year with 47 receptions for 779 yards and 11 touchdowns in the same span. He would go on to set a NFL record with 23 receiving touchdowns that year.

The Patriots duo of Moss and Welker put up much better numbers than anybody on the New Orleans Saints. The league had never seen anything like Moss in the 2007 season.

The Saints are winning with a variety of weapons, but they do not have the superstar ability that the Patriots had on that team, especially at the receiver position.

 

3) The Numbers - The reason why the Saints offense is being put in the same conversation as the Patriots is the total points scored. The Patriots scored 589 points in their 2007 season and the Saints are on pace to score 606 points this season. Keep in mind the Patriots exploded for 331 points in their first eight games or 41.3 points per game. They scored 34 points or more in all eight of their contests to start that season.

The Saints have not been as consistent. They were held to 27 points against Buffalo (3-5) and 24 points at home against the New York Jets (4-4), not exactly powerhouse competition. They were also held to 30 points against the Carolina Panthers (3-5). Those are good point totals compared to the rest of the NFL; they aren't very impressive when compared to the 2007 New England Patriots.

The one area the Saints have the Patriots beat is in total yards gained. The Patriots averaged 411.3 yards per game gained as opposed to the Saints 426.9 yards per game. The reason for that is that even though the Saints are not the same passing offense as the Patriots, they rush the ball better.

The Saints are tied for third in rushing attempts per game (32.4), fifth in rushing yards per game (144.6) and lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (15). The Patriots, on the other hand, rushed the ball only 28.2 times per game, gained only 115.6 yards per game on the ground and scored only 17 rushing touchdowns all year.

Both teams used a committee of running backs, but the Saints have clearly had the better offensive balance through the first eight games, but that gets me to my next argument.

 

4) The Schedule - Everyone knows that the AFC East was terrible in 2007. The Buffalo Bills finished (7-9) with four of their wins coming against the New York Jets (4-12) and the Miami Dolphins (1-15). That said, the Patriots played some tough games that year, especially in their first eight games.

They had to play against the Dallas Cowboys, who finished 13-3 that year and earned the No. 1 Seed in the NFC. They played the San Diego Chargers, who finished 11-5 and made the AFC Championship Game. They played the Cleveland Browns, who finished with 10 wins that season. They also played the Washington Redskins, who finished 9-7 and earned a NFC wildcard bid. They beat those teams by a combined score of 172-65. Overall, their first eight opponents had a 62-58 record for the season (removes the eight losses those teams all suffered to the Patriots).

It is a little tougher to do the same thing for the Saints, because we do not know how these teams will finish. It could be some of these bad teams on their remaining schedule rebound, or it could be that the good teams collapse. The Saints have faced only three teams so far that have a record over .500.

They played the (5-3) Eagles in Week Two without QB Donovan McNabb, who missed the game with a broken rib. They absolutely destroyed a (5-4) New York Giants 48-27 in what has been their most impressive win of the season. They beat the (5-3) Atlanta Falcons 35-27 in the Superdome. Overall, their opponents have a record of 29-28 (removes the eight losses those teams all suffered to the Saints).

I think the schedule shows that the Patriots played a lot tougher competition in their first eight games than the Saints have played in their first eight games. I think the Saints were impressive against the Giants and the Patriots, but the Patriots basically did the same thing in four games, not just two.

Looking ahead, the Saints play the (1-7) St. Louis Rams, the (1-7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice, and the (2-6) Washington Redskins. It will be interesting to revisit the schedule at the end of the year and see how the Saints strength of schedule pans out, but to date the Saints have had a pretty easy schedule with most of their tough games at home. They have only one remaining road game against a team with a winning record, (5-3) Atlanta. Their only two games that should be challenges at home will be the (6-2) Dallas Cowboys and (6-2) New England Patriots.

I think when it is all said and done, even though the Patriots played in an inferior division, they also will have had the more difficult schedule. The Saints have benefited from the Buccaneers and Panthers underachieving this year, combined with a last-place schedule they inherited from their (8-8) season in 2008. The Patriots, on the other hand, had a first-place schedule (in ’07) due to their 12-4 season in 2006.

 

5) New England vs. The Superdome - Let's not forget that New England's offense really started to slow down when the weather cooled down late in the year. The Patriots played five December games in 2007. Three of those games were at home, one was in the Meadowlands and one was in Baltimore. Those are not exactly great weather environments. It is tougher to throw the ball in wind, snow and rain, which slowed down the Patriot offense over the last five games; the Patriots only averaged 29.4 points in those five contests. Had they played games in a dome like the New Orleans Saints, they would have had a better chance of keeping up their first half pace.

That is going to be a major advantage for the Saints. If you look at the prolific offenses of the last 30 years, most of them played in nice environments.

The 1998 Minnesota Vikings scored 556 points playing eight games in the Metrodome. The 1999-2001 St. Louis Rams played on the “Greatest Show on Turf” in the Edward Jones Dome. The 2004 Indianapolis Colts played in a dome. The 1984 Miami Dolphins played in the Sunshine State. All those offenses eclipsed 500 points. 

Could you name a dominant offense other than the 2007 Patriots that played in a cold weather city? The only recent team I could think of was the 1998 Denver Broncos, who averaged 31.3 points per game, which barely put them over 500 points for that season. As good as Brett Favre did in Green Bay all those years, the most points they ever scored in a single season was just 28.5 points per game in 1996. Those offenses were great offenses, but they did not put up the single-season historic point totals of those other ones I mentioned. 

You just do not normally see high-scoring teams playing in cold weather places. Cold weather cities are known for their tough and intimidating defenses. When they talk about the Monsters of the Midway, they aren't talking about a 50 -touchdown passing Chicago Bears quarterback. The Purple People Eaters are not Vikings QB Fran Tarkenton and his three wide receivers. Cold weather cities are known for Hall of Fame running backs and top line defenses.

The two things that have amazed me most when it comes to passing numbers are:

1)     Favre being able to hold every single passing record playing the majority of his career in Green Bay, WI, (one of the coldest environments in the history of the NFL) and,

2)      The 2007 New England Patriots being able to set the offensive records they did playing in a place that is know for cold and snow.

As always, it is too early to tell. The Saints could just be warming up and be ready to give us a show we have never seen before, and in eight weeks, I may be eating my words.

I just think that 2007 Patriots team had a rock star quality to it that I have not seen yet out of the 2009 New Orleans Saints. Maybe that was because they won three Super Bowls prior to that season, or maybe it was because of Brady and Moss's start power before that season, but my vote still goes with the Patriots based on what I have seen as of today.

We will revisit this at the end of the season and see how it panned out.


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Comments (16)
What if?
1 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 00:21
doynerdc
What if the Saints go 19-0? That's better than 18-1...
doynerdc
2 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 08:47
Derek Lofland
Thanks for the post. We are talking about two different things. If the Saints go 19-0 they clearly had the better team. I do not think the 2007 Patriots are one of the top teams in NFL history, they did not win a ring.

Is it conceivable that the New Orleans Saints could go 19-0, but the Patriots offense was better. I think that is possible.

I personally do not think the Saints will go undefeated. The Patriots had the 4th ranked yardage defense and the 4th ranked scoring defense. The Saints are currently 17th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed. I think both the Cowboys and the Patriots will have a good chance to knock the Saints off. I think the Falcons playing at home will have a good shot too.

Again, if the Saints go 16-0 and come close to or break the Patriots record I think it is worth revisiting this topic. Until then I was more impressed with the first eight games the Patriots played. I think the Saints have a lot of work to do to reach the level of that team in terms of regular season dominance.
Saints V Pats
3 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 10:46
Jim
Obviously the author has a man love thing going with Brady.............
What if part 2
4 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 10:55
Realistic
What if the Patriots didn't get caught cheating in the first game of that season? What if they would have had to forfeit that game and had been banned from the playoffs? What if they were cheating during the three Super bowl winning seasons (because according to other coaches, they were)?
Jim - Saints vs. Patriots
5 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 11:30
Derek Lofland
You caught me, lol. It's just unjustifiable that I would think a quarterback that threw 50 touchdown passes in a season ran a better offense. Can't even believe I threw that idea out there.
What if part 2
6 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 11:35
Derek Lofland
My position is that as long as the NFL record book recognizes the Patriots 2007 season, then so will I.

I wrote an article about a year ago saying that the spygate incident was going to be a taint on The Hood's legacy. I stand by that. But I also think that Bill Belichick was not the only coach doing that, he was just the only one to get caught.

You are always going to have people that will not recognize the Patriots season because of the allegations brought against them. I just don't think that is fair to what those guys did on the field. Had the 2009 Rams done the same thing they still would be 1-8. You need players to make plays.

There should be a way that reasonable fans can divide what the Patriots did on the field and what Belichick did that was against the rules. That's the approach that I try to take with them.
Agree with columnist
7 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 12:32
Tom
I do agree with the columnist, but, that Pats team was freakishly good. The Saints may still be plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl.

Brady's season was awesome, but Brees compares favorably to Brady in any year but that one.
Funny stuff ...
8 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 13:04
Michael
I'm assuming there is no copy editor affiliated with this web site. Otherwise, there wouldn't be an inordinate amount of grammatical errors.

I couldn't care less which team has the better offense. Do you feel that Brady would rather have that offensive title or a Super Bowl ring from that failed season? New Orleans is winning. Is that not enough?
Defense
9 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 13:46
Nate
Although the Patriots had a better ranked defense in their 2007 season, it would be interesting to see how many points both teams' defenses were responsible for. I'd bet that the Saints are getting a lot of help in that area as well with Sharpers 3 pick 6s and a defense that causes a lot of turnovers
Tom - Agree
10 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 15:14
Derek Lofland
Thanks for the comments. I think Brees does compare favorably with Brady in every other year other than 2007. I also think the Saints are a Super Bowl contender. Time will tell if Minnesota or Dallas can challenge them. Those appear to be the frontrunners to knock the Saints off.
Michael - Funny stuff
11 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 15:17
Derek Lofland
You could care less which team has the better offense, but you read the article and commented on it?

I think Brady would rather have the Super Bowl that year. That isn't the point. The article was looking at two good offenses and comparing the two.
Nate - Defense
12 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 15:20
Derek Lofland
Good point. The Patriots had three interceptions returned for touchdowns and three fumbles returned for touchdowns. Belichick is always good at having his teams force turnovers and putting the team in good position to score. I don't think the Saints have an advantage on New England.
Agreed
13 Thursday, 12 November 2009 09:30
Frederick Schwager
Can't agree more. Let's get rid of the spygate crap, because it was over and done with week one.

You look at who the Pats played and beat in the first eight games (all prior to their week 10 bye), and the Saints just haven't had a comparable schedule.

Week 2 they beat a Chargers team that would finish 11-5 and meet them in the AFC championship game. Week 6 they beat a Cowboys team that would finish 13-3 and as the number one seed in the NFC. They beat those two teams by a margin of 86-41.

In the first eight, New Orleans has struggled against Carolina and Miami, and hasn't blown out other opponents in the way in which the Pats were taking everybody down, and there's not a whole lot to suggest that New Orleans has had opponents of greater quality.

Week 9 is what impressed me about the Patriots. 8-0 and heading into Indy to play an undefeated Colts team (that, mind you, finished all of 13 points away from an undefeated season of their own, and that includes the last game against Tennessee in which most of their starters saw limited playing time), and the Pats pull one out for a 24-20 win.

We haven't seen anything like that of the Saints yet. We haven't seen them play anybody of that caliber, and I don't even know that they will play anybody of that caliber. People tend to forget just how good the Colts were that year, and for New England to take it to 9-0 over them was an incredible feat. Take away that one Peyton Manning fumble in the game's final minutes, and the Colts are heading into week 17 just one field goal short of being 15-0 themselves (they lost by two points to the Chargers).

Spygate had nothing to do with those wins.
A few thoughts...
14 Thursday, 12 November 2009 10:51
Max
This reads more like a comparison of passing offenses than a comparison of total offenses. You did slide in the numbers about the Saints having more PPG and YPG, but you glossed over it that as if those aren't two great metrics to compare offenses. Yes, Brady had better individual numbers, but Brees has not had to put up comparable numbers because the Saints have had a great running game.

So yes, I will concede that Brady and the Patriots had a better passing offense. Can you concede that the Brees and the Saints have had a better total offense?

The Saints PPG has benefited from defensive TDs, but the Patriots offense benefited from Belichick's philosophy to beat the **** out of every opponent throwing all over the field in the 4th quarter up +20, rather than sitting and running with a lead like the Saints have done.
Fredrick Schwager
15 Thursday, 12 November 2009 11:54
Derek Lofland
I agree, those were two great teams that year. For New England to beat the AFC #2 (Indy), #3 (SD), #4 (Pitt) to go along with the NFC #1 (Dal), #5 (NY Giants), and #6 (Wash) was very impressive. The only games of those that were close were the Colts and the Giants. Saints have not shown that dominance against great competition yet, other than the Giants who were 5-0 headed into that game.
Max - A few thoughts
16 Thursday, 12 November 2009 12:12
Derek Lofland
Some good points. Keep in mind that one reason the Patriots could not run the ball is the injuries they had to their runners. Morris started 2 games, Maroney 6 games, and Faulk 8 games. I don't think Kevin Faulk is as good as Pierre Thomas.

In the Saints defense Thomas and Bell have been banged up at different times too. I also say injuries are part of the game. The numbers do not lie, the 09 Saints run the ball better than the 07 Patriots.

As for this question about overall offense, the Patriots averaged 41.1 points per game in their first 10 games. The Saints are at 37.9. That is a big enough gap to make this statement. The gap between the Patriots passing offense and Saints passing offense is greater than the gap between the Patriots running game and the Saints running game. Therefore I believe the Patriots had the better overall offense in the first half of the season. Time will tell what happens in the second half.

You bring up the running up the score arguement. First, I don't believe there is such a thing as running up the score at the pro level, these guys get paid $100.00 million dollars as a team to play as a team and if they cannot stop someone, too bad. It's punk to do that in high school, but the pros I do not feel sorry for.

Second, the Bills showed people why you can never count someone out. Up 35-3 the Oilers blew that lead in less than a half playing the Bills backup QB, Reich.

You can't leave Brady in there to play at 50%, that is how injuries happen and if you remember the Miami game you took Brady out and had to put him back in, because the Dolphins went on a run. Nobody wants to blow a big lead and then have to put starters back in.

When you tell the offense to take it's foot off the gas, the defense is not going to maintain the level of energy they need. Bad things happen to teams that quit games early.

I looked at the scores and most of the Saints points have come with the game still in some doubt. I look at the Patriots and I think the only game you can really aruge the ran it up was the Redskins game. I the Redskins game Brady had a pass to Welker in the fourth quarter to make it 45-0. The next 7 were scored by the backup, Cassel.

The Patriots running up the score every week arguement does not hold a lot of water to me. I just think they were so good they could score at will every week, something the Saints are close to doing, but have not shown yet, demonstrated by how they played the Bils and Jets.

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